Honestly, I have no idea. You could see some, or you could see none. It really depends on the quality of gasoline, engine health, modifications, altitude, humidity, and many other operating variables. There is no 1 correct answer, nor should there be. The ECU is extremely dynamic.
Very good question. Unfortunately I don't know the answer, because I've never tested water meth with our own calibrations. I do not know what the results will be. The IAT sensor will see lower temperatures and adjust compensations based on those lower temps. With APR ECU Explorer, I could log all of the ignition related maps and calculations in the ECU and get a better idea of what's actually happening. However, vag-com does not relay information other than the final output, and the per cylinder correction factors.
I have seen customers attempting to run our 100 octane calibrations with w/m and sometimes the meth is not setup correctly. In doing so, the ECU pulls quite a bit of timing, and jumps to lower ignition maps as the adaption to register more ignition pull. This could result in lower ignition than actually running on the 93 octane map all together!
Between two different calibrations, if everything is the same, each should be able to achieve the same amount of ignition advance. Running more boost will likely mean our base ignition maps were calibrated lower than someone running less boost as the cylinder pressures are higher. However, that said, the difference should not be tremendous.
Knock control can be adjusted from the factory. The sensitivity can be turned down. This is something we do not do, but it can explain the differences between two different calibrations, all thing equal. We will not do this on our calibrations, and I'm not stating another tuner has.
Keep in mind, timing pull does not mean the engine is physically knocking. Timing pull is normal. If you don't have any timing pull, it means you likely still have more headroom on the table to increase ignition further.